Effect of meteorological factors on epidemic situation of aspiratory infectious diseases in drought area

  Objective   To investigate the relationship between meteorological factors of drought and incidence of common infectious diseases.The Back-Propagation artificial neural network model was built and evaluated.

  Methods   The data of incidence of infectious diseases and meteorological factors in drought area from 1981 to 1994 were collected and analyzed by using SPSS for windows, version 10.0;The model of back-Propagation artificial neural network was built by Matlab, version 6.5.

  Results   The incidences of epidemic was negative correlated to annual mean atmospheric pressure, annual mean precipitation, and was positive correlated to annual mean evaporation.The incidence of pertussis was negative correlated to annual mean atmospheric pressure and positive correlated to annual mean evaporation.The MER and R² of cerebrospinal meningitis and pertussis model were 1.73% and 1, 7.74% and 0.990 0 respectively.The forecasting precision of cerebrospinal meningitis and pertussis model was 5.88% and 59146% respectively.

  Conclusion   The incidence of aspiratory infectious diseases was correlated to atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and evaporation.The BP neural network model fitted very well in the study of aspiratory infectious diseases.