Spatial distribution of viral hepatitis prevalence in Jiangsu province by geographic information system

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of viral hepatitis prevalence in Jiangsu province.Methods The data on viral hepatitis incidents in Jiangsu province from 2003 to 2009 were collected and analyzed.The statistic information was revealed by spatial autocorrelation analysis,trend surface analysis,and spatial regression analysis to find the high prevalence areas and to forecast the epidemic trend of viral hepatitis.Results The results indicated that the prevalence of the disease in some areas had spatial aggregation and the prevalence of the disease exhibited spatial autocorrelation in some parts of Jiangsu province,such as Nanjing,Wujin,Wuxi,Changzhou,and Suzhou,with local Moran's I indexes of -0.000145,0.000253,0.000284,0.000357,and 0.000184.A significant negative autocorrelation was observed for viral hepatitis epidemic in Nanjing area and significant positive autocorrelation in Wujin,Changzhou,Wuxi,and Suzhou area.A trend surface and a spatial regression model were established for viral hepatitis incidence in Jiangsu province with a formula of Y=-227.29 531×LON-439.43 745×LAT+443 52.8 914.The results of the analyses confirmed that Nanjing,Wuxi,Suzhou,Huai'an,and Xuzhou were the five highest prevalence areas of viral hepatitis.Conclusion The incidence of viral hepatitis is obviously distributed geographically in Jiangsu province and effective measures should be taken to control the prevalence of viral hepatitis.