Time series analysis on road traffic injury in Nanning city, 2000-2009

Objective To establish predictive models for road traffic injury(RTI) in Nanning city,and to elucidate the trend of RTI for prevention and controll of RTI in Nanning.Methods The RTI data from 2000 to 2009 in Nanning city were collected and the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was used to analyze and predict the trend of RTI from 2010 to 2011 in Nanning.Results A series of predictive equations on RTI were established based on ARIMA model.The model fitting was effcetive and the predictive data on RTI were close to the true statistical data,and all the predictive models were ARIMA(1,0,0).The predictions for number of accident,number of people dead and injured due to injury,and direct economic lost were 472,145 and 562 persons,and 1 570 436 RMB yuan for the calendar year of 2010 and 464,141 and 527 persons,and 1 611 029 RMB yuan for 2011 based on the models.Conclusion The ARIMA model could be applied in RTI prediction effectively.