Association of atmospheric temperature with incidence trend and cluster of hand,foot and mouth disease

Objective To investigate the relationship between the incidence trend of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD) and atmospheric temperature in Laiwu city during the period of 2011 to 2013 and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods Data on HFMD epidemics and atmospheric temperature in Laiwu city from 2011 to 2013 were collected and analyzed with correlation regression.Results The average monthly incidence of HFMD was positively correlated with average,minimum and maximum atmospheric temperature,with the correlation coefficient(r) of 0.579 6,0.798 9,and 0.600 2(all P<0.01);the average monthly atmospheric temperature was positively correlated with the average monthly number of HFMD cluster epidemic(r=0.762 7,95%confidence interval95%CI:0.335 7-0.929 7,P=0.003 9);after logarithmic transformation,the average monthly number of the cluster HFMD epidemic was positively correlated with monthly average atmospheric temperature(r=0.929 1,95%CI:0.760 8-0.803,P<0.000 1),with a regression equation of log(y)=0.798 9+0.072 63x.Conclusion Data on atmospheric temperature could be used in the prediction of incidence and cluster epidemic of HFMD.