Trend in lung cancer mortality among residents in China: 1987-2014

Objective To analyze epidemical features,distribution and time trend of lung cancer deaths among Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014.Methods Lung cancer mortality data for Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014 were aggregated.Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors of lung cancer death and joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in lung cancer mortality of various populations.Results The lung cancer death risks were higher in urban residents than in rural residents (odds ratioOR=1.43,95% confidence interval95%CI=1.35-1.50; P<0.01) and in male residents than in female residents (OR=2.28,95%CI=2.17-2.41; P<0.01).A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 62% increased lung cancer mortality (OR=1.62,95%CI=1.60-1.63; P<0.01) and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 1% increased mortality (OR=1.01,95%CI=1.00-1.01; P<0.01).A markedly rising trend in age-standardized lung cancer mortality was observed among rural residents,with the annual percent change (APC) of 2.58% and 2.54% among male and female rural residents (both P<0.01); whereas,a slightly falling but significant trend in the age-standardized mortality in urban female residents (APC=-0.74%,P<0.01) and an unsignificant falling trend in urban male residents (APC=-0.23%,P=0.11) were observed.The age-specific lung cancer mortality rate decreased yearly for the urban residents aged 25-75 years but increased for those aged ≥75 years; the age-specific mortality rate also increased yearly for the rural male residents aged ≥40 years and the female residents aged ≥ 50 years and no significant variation in the age-specific mortality rate was observed in the rural residents of other age groups.Conclusion There was a significant gender difference in secular trend of lung cancer mortality among Chinese residents and lung cancer mortality increased yearly among rural residents in China.