Epidemic characteristics from 2004 to 2015 and predicted prevalence trend of gonorrhea in Fujian province

Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea between 2004 and 2015 and to predict the prevalence trend of the disease in Fujian province for providing evidences to make disease control strategies.Methods The data on gonorrhea epidemic from 2004 to 2015 in Fujian province were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and analyzed with descriptive epidemiology methods.Gray model (1,1)was established to predict the trend of gonorrhea incidence.Results The reported gonorrhea incidence declined from 21.92 per 100 000 population in 2004 to 13.88 per 100 000 population in 2015,with a decreasing trend (χ²=692.485,P<0.01).The highest reported incidence rate was observed in the population aged 25-29 years.The reported cases distributed mainly in Quanzhou,Xiamen and Fuzhou municipalities with better economic development.The reported number of male cases were obviously more than that of female cases and the male to female ratio of the reported cases increased yearly during the period.A decreasing trend was predicted for gonorrhea incidence for the period from 2016 to 2018 in Fujian province.Conclusion Gonorrhea incidence decreased from 2004 to 2015 in Fujian province but there is still the epidemic risk of the disease and effective prevention measures should be promoted.