Prediction of demand for health human resources in rural Gansu province

Objective To predict the demand for health human resources in rural areas of Gansu province between 2012 and 2020 and to provide a reference for regional health workforce planning.Methods Baseline data on the rural population and the number of medical personnel in Gansu province (Gansu) between 2003 and 2011 were collected and then the demand and deficit of medical personnel during the period between 2012 and 2020 were predicted using manpower/population ratio method.Results The average annual increase rates of licensed practicing (assistant) doctor and registered nurse were 1.74% and 5.27% between 2003 and 2011.The predicted numbers of licensed practicing (assistant) doctor and registered nurse in rural areas of Gansu would be 23 810 and 21 763 in 2020.Compared with the requirements of "The Medium and Long Term Planning for Medical Talent Development in Gansu Province (2011-2020)",the deficits in the numbers of licensed practicing (assistant) doctor and registered nurse are 15 253 and 36 645,respectively.Conclusion The number of medical personnel in rural Gansu will increase yearly between 2012 and 2020 and the deficit in the number required would decrease but remain.