Prediction on prevalence of colorectal cancer in Wuhan from 2003 to 2011

  Objective   To predict the prevalence trend (mortality rate) of colorectal cancer in Wuhan, and to explore the reliability of the Grey Model.

  Methods   The prediction model was established based on the Grey Model to predict the result dynamically using "Same Dimension-Progressively Increased Grey Dynamic Prediction", and to modify the prediction results by considering the "Environment Interference Factors".

  Results   The mid-time and long-term predictions about mortality rate of colorectal cancer were made based on the GM(1, 1) model. The measurements about how to prevent colorectal cancer were summarized according to the results of this research.

  Conclusion   This research provided new and important means for prediction of colorectal cancer.The short-term prediction results were confirmed and the long-term prediction need to be further studied.