Model of wavelet-based analysis and forecasting for incidence rate of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

  Objective   To improve the forecasting precision and the step-length of the incidence rate for Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS), this paper proposed the forecasting method of the seasonal non-tendency time series called wavelet forecasting model.

  Methods   By wavelet decomposing, each level series was forecasted by the ARIMA model.The final forecasting results were composed of these levels forecasting values.

  Results   The 4-step forecasting precision of wavelet forecasting model and ARIMA model was 82.45% and 67.97% respectively.

  Conclusion   Wavelet forecasting model was effective and feasible for the seasonal non-tendency HFRS's incidence rate prediction in the short and the middle term.