Study on time and geography distribution of reproduction-endocrine related tumors in China

  Objective   To analyze time trend and area distribution of mortalities of female breast cancer, ovaries tumors, prostate tumor and testicular cancer in China.

  Methods   Surveillance mortality data of breast cancer, female ovaries tumor, prostate tumor and testicular cancer from 1991 to 1999 on 145 surveillance spots were collected through Chinese disease surveillance system.Grey model(GM(1, 1))was used to analyze time trend of these four cancers.Data of total grain output and total quantsity of sewage water, exhaust gas and solid waste discharged from industrial production of all the 31 provinces of China in 1999 were collected.K-means cluster analysis was used to classify the provinces.ANOVA was used to analyze different mortalities between the classified areas.

  Results   The surveillance rate of br east cancer in China incr eased according to surveillance years, and the GM(1, 1)was ŷ(t+1)=(1.529+47.29)e^0.0274T-47.29.In those areas where industrial pollution was serious, mortalities of breast cancer were significant higher than other areas.In those areas where grain output was highor industrial pollution was serious, mortalities of breast cancer showed an increasing trend along with years.

  Conclusion   Breast cancer may be related to industry and agriculture pollution in our country, and environmental endocrine disrupting chemicals may play an imporant role in breast cancer.