Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics and trend of SARS and study these characteristics and corresponding prevention measures to the influence of the epidemic of SARS and provide evidence for the prevention and control by using logistic models.
Methods Logistic model was used to fit the cumulative incidence of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanxi. Incidence curve was drawn from the models.
Results The models got good fitting results, all determination coefficients are more than 0.99.The predicted values accord with the true values well and there is no statistical significance between them. The time distribution can be calculated and the influence of preventive measures are discussed.
Conclusion Logistic models got very good fitness results and can be used to study the influence of preventive measures to the occurrence and epidemic characteristics of SARS in theory.