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1990—2021年中国<20岁人群登革热疾病负担变化趋势：基于GBD 2021分析

Trend of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on data from GBD 2021

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 了解1990—2021年中国<20岁人群登革热疾病负担的变化趋势，为制定有针对性的防控政策提供科学依据。
    方法 收集2021年全球疾病负担（GBD 2021）数据库研究中1990—2021年中国<20岁人群登革热疾病负担的相关数据，采用标化发病率和标化伤残调整生命年（DALYs）率进行描述性分析。应用Joinpoint联结点回归模型分析1990—2021年中国<20岁人群登革热疾病负担变化趋势并计算年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）。
    结果 中国<20岁人群登革热标化发病率从1990年的0.42/10万上升至2021年的2.14/10万，标化DALYs率从1990年的0.71/10万下降至0.07/10万，1990—2021年登革热标化发病率总体呈上升趋势（AAPC=5.40%，P<0.001），标化DALYs率总体呈下降趋势（AAPC= –7.09%，P<0.001）；其中，2010—2014年登革热标化发病率上升最快（APC=21.19%，P<0.001）；1992—1998年登革热标化DALYs率下降最快（APC= –16.78%，P<0.001）。男性、女性、<5、5～9、10～14和15～19岁人群登革热标化发病率分别从1990年的0.39/10万、0.45/10万、0.29/10万、0.53/10万、0.46/10万和0.41/10万上升至2021年的2.01/10万、2.28/10万、1.53/10万、2.53/10万、2.31/10万和2.08/10万；1990—2021年登革热标化发病率均呈上升趋势（均P<0.001），标化DALYs率分别从1990年的0.88/10万、0.52/10万、2.36/10万、0.37/10万、0.07/10万和0.04/10万下降至2021年的0.08/10万、0.06/10万、0.15/10万、0.07/10万、0.03/10万和0.03/10万；1990—2021年登革热标化DALYs率均呈下降趋势（均P<0.001）。
    结论 中国<20岁人群1990—2021年登革热发病率呈上升趋势，而DALYs率呈下降趋势；其中女性和<5岁人群的发病率上升幅度较大。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the trend of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021 and provide scientific evidence for the development of targeted prevention and control policies.
    Methods The data of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021). The standardized incidence rate and standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate were used for descriptive analysis. A Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021, and annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated.
    Results The standardized incidence rate of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China increased from 0.42/100 000 in 1990 to 2.14/100 000 in 2021, showing an overall upward trend (AAPC = 5.40%, P < 0.001). The standardized DALYs rate decreased from 0.71/100 000 in 1990 to 0.07/100 000 in 2021, demonstrating a declining trend (AAPC = –7.09%, P < 0.001). The standardized incidence rate of dengue fever increased the most from 2010 to 2014 (APC = 21.19%, P < 0.001), and the standardized DALYs rate of dengue fever decreased the most from 1992 to 1998 (APC = –16.78%, P < 0.001). The standardized incidence rates of dengue fever in males, females, population < 5, 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19 years old increased from 0.39/100 000, 0.45/100 000, 0.29/100 000, 0.53/100 000, 0.46/100 000, and 0.41/100 000 in 1990 to 2.01/100 000, 2.28/100 000, 1.53/100 000, 2.53/100 000, 2.31/100 000, and 2.08/100 000 in 2021, respectively, showing a rising trend (all P < 0.001). The standardized DALYs rates of dengue fever in males, females, population < 5, 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19 years old decreased from 0.88/100 000, 0.52/100 000, 2.36/100 000, 0.37/100 000, 0.07/100 000 and 0.04/100 000 in 1990 to 0.08/100 000, 0.06/100 000, 0.15/100 000, 0.07/100 000, 0.03/100 000, and 0.03/100 000 in 2021, respectively, presenting a declining trend (all P < 0.001).
    Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China showed an increasing trend, while the DALYs rate showed a decreasing trend. The incidence rate in females and the population < 5 years old increased more.

     

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