Objective To examine the impact of ambient temperature on other infectious diarrhea incidence (OIDI) and the impact′s attributable risk of OIDI in Shaoxing city, Zhejiang province for providing evidences to the prevention and control of the disease.
Methods Daily data on OIDI and meteorological factors in Shaoxing city were collected for the period from January 2014 through December 2016. The impact of daily average ambient temperature (DAAT) on OIDI was analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Fraction and number of OIDI attributable to DAAT were estimated based on the results of DLNM analysis.
Results A total of 42 480 of OIDI were reported during the 3-year period in the city. Both high and low DAAT were associated with an increased risk of OIDI. The DAAT of 3.6 ℃ was associated to the highest lag 30 day cumulative effect on OIDI, with a cumulative relative risk (RR) of 4.820 (95% confidence interval 95% CI: 2.857 – 8.132). The total number of OIDI attributed to the influence of DAAT was 15 335 (95% CI: 11 896 – 17 533), accounting for 36.10% (95% CI: 28.23% – 41.66%) of all OIDI. The fraction of attributable risk of OIDI for low DAAT was 5.09% (95% CI: 4.29% – 5.60%), higher than that (2.61% 95% CI: 0.89% – 3.86%) for high DAAT. The females and the people ≥ 15 years old were vulnerable populations of OIDI associated with high DAAT.
Conclusion Both high and low daily average ambient temperature could increase the risk of other infectious diarrhea incidence and the attributable risk of infectious diarrhea for low daily average ambient temperature is greater than that for high average ambient temperature but females and the people aged 15 years and above are vulnerable to other infectious diarrhea incidence associated with high average ambient temperature.
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