Objective To explore 10-year mortality and the trend of premature death probability of circulatory diseases among nonferrous metal workers followed-up by a large cohort study – Jinchang Cohort in Gansu province, China, for providing evidences to develop strategies on circulatory disease prevention and control.
Methods Records of death due to circulatory diseases among followees of Jinchang Cohort from 2011 through 2020 were retrieved and analyzed retrospectively. Crude mortality rate (CDR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and premature death probability were calculated; joinpoint regression and annual percent change (APC) were adopted to assess variation trend in circulatory disease mortality.
Results For the 489 717 person years of 10-year follow-up, totally 1 387 circulatory disease deaths were observed, with a CDR of 283.22/100 000 and an ASMR of 161.80/100 000. The annual CDR of circulatory diseases showed an upward trend (APC = 10.02%, t = 5.80, P < 0.01). The major causes of circulatory disease mortalities were stroke and coronary heart disease, with the CDR of 128.44/100 000 and 84.33/100 000, and the ASMR of 73.02/100 000 and 47.88/100 000, respectively, accounting for 75.13% of total deaths of circulatory diseases. The CDR of coronary heart disease increased during the 10-year period (APC = 17.90%, t = 5.83, P < 0.01). The probability of premature death from circulatory diseases was 1.46% during the 10-year period for the workers followed-up and that from stroke and coronary heart disease was 1.21% and 1.03%.
Conclusion From 2011 to 2020 among the workers in the Jinchang Cohort, the mortality rate of circulatory diseases increased mainly due to stroke and coronary heart disease; the mortality rate and the premature death probability of coronary heart disease increased significantly.
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