Objective To examine the trend in intentional injury mortality during 2008 – 2020 among Chinese residents and to predict the mortality rate of years of 2021 – 2025 in the population for providing evidence to intentional injury prevention.
Methods The data on gender-, age-, region-specific intentional injury mortality for years of 2008 – 2020 among the populations of surveillance sites across China were extracted from National Cause-of-Death Surveillance Dataset. Yearly crude and standardized rate were calculated to describe intentional injury mortality. Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze changing trend in standardized mortality rates, and grey model was applied to predict intentional injury mortality rates for years of 2021 – 2025.
Results For the whole population surveyed, the standardized mortality rate (per 100 000) decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for intentional injury (from 11.10 to 5.76 ), suicide and sequelae (10.11 to 5.42), and homicide and sequelae (1.01 to 0.31) (average annual percent change AAPC = – 5.85%, – 5.62%, – 10.77%) (all P < 0.001), respectively. For the male population, the standardized mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 12.77 to 6.99 during the whole period (P < 0.001, APPC = – 5.50%); while, for the female population, there was a significant decrease from 2010 to 2018 (annual percent change APC = – 7.31%, P < 0.001) but a unsignificant increase from 2018 to 2020 (APC = 0.04%, P = 0.995) in the standardized mortality rate, though the rate decreased significantly from 9.70 to 4.58 for the whole period from 2008 to 2020 (P < 0.001, APPC = – 6.12%). The mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for the populations aged 1 – 4 years (0.02 to 0.01, AAPC = – 6.01%), 15 – 44 years (0.59 to 0.31, AAPC = – 5.37), 45 – 64 years (0.86 to 0.46, AAPC = – 5.42%), and ≥ 65 years (0.77 to 0.39, AAPC = – 6.17%) (P < 0.01 for all). The standardized mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for the populations in eastern region (9.08 to 4.77, AAPC = – 5.53%), central region (14.37 to 6.92, AAPC = – 6.07%), and western region (10.73 to 5.90, AAPC = – 5.42%) and also for the populations in urban regions (6.69 to 4.18, AAPC = – 4.56%) and rural regions (14.06 to 6.67, AAPC = – 6.71%) (P < 0.001 for all). The predicted annual mortality rate of intentional injury from 2021 to 2025 for the population surveyed were 6.07, 5.83, 5.60, 5.38, and 5.16 based on grey model analysis.
Conclusion The intentional injury mortality rate for Chinese residents from 2008 to 2020 and in the next five years shows a continuous downward trend.
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