Prediction of the ten-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city: based on the China-PAR model

Objective To predict the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its risk factors among residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou City, so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control measures for CVD.

Methods The data of residents aged 35–75 years old in Gulou district, Yunlong district, and Quanshan district of Xuzhou city collected during the baseline survey of the Jiangsu Province Comprehensive Prevention and Control Project for Cardiovascular Diseases in 2022–2023 were used. Information such as general data, body height, body weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was gathered through questionnaires, physical examinations, and laboratory tests. The prediction for ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) model was used to assess the 10-year risk of CVD among the surveyed subjects.

Results The 12 256 residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou consisted of 3 956 (32.28%) males and 8 300 (67.72%) females. Males showed higher age, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, TG, smoking rate, hypertension prevalence, diabetes prevalence, and antihypertensive medication use than females (all P < 0.05). Females exhibited higher levels of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and CVD family history than males (all P < 0.05). The 10-year CVD risk among participants was 7.67%, and it was higher among males (10.85%) than among females (6.31%) (P < 0.01). The proportion of high-risk populations reached 37.73%, being higher in males (54.60%) than in females (29.69%) (P < 0.01). This proportion increased with age, and males in all age groups had higher proportions of high-risk populations than females. Aggregated risk factors of 1, 2, or ≥ 3 accounted for 28.24%, 28.11%, and 26.07%, respectively. The aggregation of risk factors in females increased with age (χ²_trend = 908.35, P < 0.001), while no such trend was observed in males (P > 0.05).

Conclusions The 10-year CVD risk is high in the residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city. Males show higher risk, proportion of high-risk populations in different age groups, and aggregation of risk factors than females.