Objective To understand the incidence trend of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection among children under 10 years of age in Shenzhen city, Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2023, and the influence of age, period, and birth cohort effects on this trend, to provide a reference for the development of local HBV prevention and control strategies.
Methods Data on the incidence of HBV in children under 10 years of age in Shenzhen city from 2005 to 2023 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance module of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends in HBV incidence and calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). An age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to estimate and simulate the age, period, and cohort effects on the risk of HBV infection in children under 10 years of age in Shenzhen city.
Results The incidence of HBV in children under 10 years of age in Shenzhen city decreased from 10.38/100 000 in 2005 to 1.26/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC = –12.20%, P < 0.001). The incidence of HBV showed a monotonic decreasing trend from 2005 to 2011 (APC = –11.30%, P = 0.012) and from 2018 to 2023 (APC = –31.47%, P < 0.001), while fluctuating irregularly from 2011 to 2018 (APC = 3.77%, P = 0.371). The APC model analysis showed that, in terms of age effects, the incidence of HBV was highest in the 0-year-old age group at 27.82/100 000 (95%CI: 20.13/100 000–38.46/100 000), decreased significantly from 0 to 2 years of age, fluctuated slightly from 2 to 6 years of age, and then gradually decreased with increasing age after 6 years of age, reaching the lowest level in the 9-year-old age group at 3.15/100 000 (95%CI: 2.13/100 000–4.65/100 000). In terms of period effects, the period effect of HBV incidence showed a downward trend over time, with the highest in 2006 (RR = 3.57, 95%CI: 2.33–5.47) and the lowest in 2023( RR = 0.32, 95%CI: 0.17–0.60). In terms of cohort effects, the later the birth cohort, the lower the risk of HBV infection in children. The cohort effect showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the highest in the 1996 birth cohort (RR = 1.39, 95%CI: 0.61–3.19) and the lowest in the 2020 birth cohort (RR = 0.08, 95%CI: 0.03–0.19). The local drifts of HBV incidence in all age groups of children under 10 years of age in Shenzhen city were less than 0, ranging from –13.04% (95%CI: –16.42% to –9.53%) in the 0-year-old age group to –4.92% (95%CI: –7.32% to –2.47%) in the 9-year-old age group, and the incidence of HBV in all age groups showed a downward trend over time.
Conclusions The incidence of HBV in children under 10 years of age in Shenzhen city showed an overall downward trend from 2005 to 2023, indicating that the HBV prevention and control efforts in this area have been effective.
DownLoad: