Trend of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on data from GBD 2021

Objective To understand the trend of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021 and provide scientific evidence for the development of targeted prevention and control policies.

Methods The data of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021). The standardized incidence rate and standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate were used for descriptive analysis. A Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of disease burden of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021, and annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated.

Results The standardized incidence rate of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China increased from 0.42/100 000 in 1990 to 2.14/100 000 in 2021, showing an overall upward trend (AAPC = 5.40%, P < 0.001). The standardized DALYs rate decreased from 0.71/100 000 in 1990 to 0.07/100 000 in 2021, demonstrating a declining trend (AAPC = –7.09%, P < 0.001). The standardized incidence rate of dengue fever increased the most from 2010 to 2014 (APC = 21.19%, P < 0.001), and the standardized DALYs rate of dengue fever decreased the most from 1992 to 1998 (APC = –16.78%, P < 0.001). The standardized incidence rates of dengue fever in males, females, population < 5, 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19 years old increased from 0.39/100 000, 0.45/100 000, 0.29/100 000, 0.53/100 000, 0.46/100 000, and 0.41/100 000 in 1990 to 2.01/100 000, 2.28/100 000, 1.53/100 000, 2.53/100 000, 2.31/100 000, and 2.08/100 000 in 2021, respectively, showing a rising trend (all P < 0.001). The standardized DALYs rates of dengue fever in males, females, population < 5, 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19 years old decreased from 0.88/100 000, 0.52/100 000, 2.36/100 000, 0.37/100 000, 0.07/100 000 and 0.04/100 000 in 1990 to 0.08/100 000, 0.06/100 000, 0.15/100 000, 0.07/100 000, 0.03/100 000, and 0.03/100 000 in 2021, respectively, presenting a declining trend (all P < 0.001).

Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate of dengue fever in the population < 20 years old in China showed an increasing trend, while the DALYs rate showed a decreasing trend. The incidence rate in females and the population < 5 years old increased more.