Trends and growth rates of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults from 1982 to 2015: based on the national nutrition surveys and health monitoring data

Objective To analyze the long-term trends, growth rates, and population disparities of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults from 1982 to 2015, thereby providing evidence for targeted prevention and control.

Methods This study used data from the national nutrition surveys and health monitoring conducted in 1982, 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2015. The weighted prevalence of overweight and obesity was calculated. Long-term trends were analyzed by inverse variance-weighted linear regression for prediction, and the geometric growth model was employed to calculate the compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) in different periods.

Results From 1982 to 2015, the prevalence of overweight among Chinese adults increased from 11.0% to 33.3%, while that of obesity rose from 1.9% to 14.1%. Projections indicated these figures would reach 43.2% and 17.3%, respectively, in 2030. The increasing trends in both overweight and obesity prevalence show significant temporal fluctuations and population disparities: The CAGRs for both overweight and obesity decelerated during 2002–2012 (2.1% and 4.8%, respectively) but rebounded in 2012–2015 (3.3% and 7.9%, respectively). During 1982–2015, the CAGRs for both overweight and obesity were consistently higher in men than in women, with the disparity being most pronounced during 2012–2015 (the CAGR of obesity reached 10.5% in men versus 5.4% in women). The 45–59 age group consistently had the highest prevalence of overweight, and it surpassed the ≥60 age group to become the group with the highest obesity prevalence (40.3% for overweight and 16.2% for obesity in 2015) after 2002. The 18–44 age group, despite its currently lower prevalence, exhibited the highest CAGRs for both overweight and obesity across most periods, particularly surging to the top during 2012–2015 (CAGR: 4.0% for overweight and 10.2% for obesity). The western region emerged as a new growth hotspot, with CAGRs for overweight and obesity soaring to 8.0% and 13.4%, respectively, during 2012–2015.

Conclusions The epidemic of overweight and obesity among Chinese adults continues to worsen. The growth pattern has shifted from a generalized increase to a structural shift driven by gender, age, and geographical factors.