Influence and predictive value of metabolic syndrome components on incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus

Objective To analyze the incidence risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T-DM)associated with metabolic syndrome(MS)components and compare the predictive values of MS and impa ired fasting glycaemia(IFG)on T-DM.Methods A cohort study with five years follow-up was carried out among 1318 personse lder than 30 years and working in Electric Power Admin istration of Heilongjiang,and divided in to MS group and normal group.Data on glucose(GLU),waistcircum ference(WC),blood pressure(BP)was obtained through interview and physical checkups.Results There were 73 and 25 T-DM cases in MS and the normal,respectively,at the end of the follow-up with significant difference between the two groups.MS and its components(GLU,W C,B P)inc reased incidence risk of T-DM.The strength of MS(RR=7.83,P<0.01)and GLU(RR=7.72,P<0.01)correlation with T-DM was stronger than WC and BP.However,there was nosignificant difference in the strength between HDL and TG.The analysis of sensitivity and specificity showed that MS and GLU were better than other components.The analys is of ROC curves showed that the area zone(Az) under ROC curves of MS(Az₁=0.786,P=0.000)was higher than that of IFG(Az₂=0.729,P=0.000)with a significant difference(U=2.75,P<0.05).There were strong predictive values of MS and IFG for T-DM.Conclusion MS and its components(GLU,W C,B P)could increase the incidence risk of T-DM.MS has a high predictive value on the incidence of T-DM.