Spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemic in Jiangsu province based on Geographic Information System

ObjectiveTo explore the tuberculosis spatial distribution patterns and characteristics in Jiangsu province in 2003-2009 with Geographic Information System and to provide scientific evidence for making control strategy.MethodsThe data on tuberculosis incidence in Jiangsu province from 2003 through 2009 were collected and linked to the digital map at administrative county level with ArcGIS 9.3 software for spatial analysis.ResultsThe incidence maps of tuberculosis and Moran's spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial aggregation existed in tuberculosis epidemic during 2008-2009(Moran's index=0.233,P=0.016)but did not exist during 2003-2007(Moran's index=0.176,P=0.06).Local Moran's I spatial antocorrelation analysis pointed out the "positive high incidence region" and the "negative high incidence region" of tuberculosis during 2003-2009.Trend analysis showed that from 2003 through 2007,the tuberculosis incidence declined slightly from south to north,but the trend was not obvious from east to west.During 2008-2009,the tuberculosis incidence increased obviously first,then decreased from west to east,and also increased and then decreased from south to north,but the trend was ont obvious.Spatial regression analyses showed that the tuberculosis incidence was correlated to latitude,which become lower with the increasing of latitude(t=-2.622,P=0.011).But the correlation with longitude had no statistical significance(t=-1.561,P=0.123).ConclusionThe incidence of tuberculosis is of obviously geographical distribution in Jiangsu province.The corresponding prevention measeures should be made according to the geographical distribution.