Health emergency assessment:risk matrix and Borda sequence value method

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency in Heilongjiang province with risk matrix method.Methods A questionnaire survey on 5 types of public health emergencies most likely to be occurred in Heilongjiang province was conducted among 123 experts with long-term professional work experience and selected form 8 counties using Delphi expert consultation method.Risk matrix method was adopted to evaluate the risk of the public health emergencies based on the consideration for the possibility and severity of the emergencies predicted by the experts and then Borda sequence value method was used to category the risk of the emergencies.Results Among the 32 types public health emergencies probably occurred in the province,the top 5 most frequently considered by the 123 experts were food poisoning (93),hand,foot and mouth disease (45),infectious diseases (39),flood-induced public health risk (39),and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning (32).The results of analyses on the risk scores assigned by the experts surveyed for the top 5 public health emergencies with Borda sequence value method demonstrated that the combined possibility and severity order of the emergencies from high to low were flood-induced public health risk(Borda sequence value:(0),infectious diseases (1),non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning (2),food poisoning (3),and hand,foot and mouth disease (3),respectively.Conclusion Integrated application of risk matrix method and Borda sequence value method is an effective method to evaluate the risk of public health emergency in a specific region and could be applied in the practice of public health emergency prevention and control.