Epidemiological characteristics of intestinal infectious diseases in Hetian city,2010-2014: a time series analysis

Objective To examine epidemiological characteristics of intestinal infectious diseases in Hetian city and to explore the application of time series analysis for the prediction of the diseases.Methods Records of intestinal infectious disease cases (dysentery and other infectious diarrhea) reported in Hetian city of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region between 2010 and 2014 were extracted from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive analyses were performed with Excel 2010 and time series analysis was conducted with SPSS 18.0.The time series model established was used to predict monthly incidents of intestinal infectious diseases from January to March 2015.Results In Hetian city during the 5-year period,the annual incidents of intestinal infectious diseases reported were relatively low;89.37% of the cases were reported from March to September during a year and 54.02% of the reported cases were children under 5 years old.Simple seasonal model was the best forecast model for intestinal infectious disease epidemic and residuals of this model were white noise.Conclusion More attention should be paid to improve hygienic status among preschool children in the summer and autumn to prevent the incidence of diarrhea.Simple seasonal model could well fit to the incidents of intestinal infectious diseases in Hetian city.