Health benefit assessment for air pollution control strategy under different policy scenarios in Shanghai

Objective To quantitatively assess the economic health benefit of implementing air pollution control policies in Shanghai between 2001 and 2007.Methods A market allocation (MARKAL) optimization model was used to simulate emission concentrations of particulate particles less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀) under different policy scenarios between 2001-2007.Exposure-response functions were also used to calculate the number of cases and mortality related to particulate air pollution.Corresponding economic benefits were estimated based on unit values of the health outcomes.Results With the implementation of air pollution control policies,PM₁₀ concentration was decreased by 20.5 μg/m³ during 2001-2007 compared with that in 2000;the estimated health effects associated with the reduction of PM₁₀ are the avoidances of 8 817 mortalities,15 900 chronic and 446 200 acute bronchitis incidences,25 000 asthma attacks,6 225 hospitalizations,287 500 internal medicine outpatient visits,and 30 300 pediatric outpatient visits among residents of Shanghai.The estimated total economic health benefit is 17.47-31.83 billions US dollars.Conclusion The implementation of air pollution control policies decreased air pollutants levels effectively and improved health status of residents in urban Shanghai,with a substantial economic benefit.