Prediction on epidemic of scarlet with seasonal variational phenomenon

  Objective   To analyse the data of scarlet in Liaoning province and to build up extrapolation model to predict.

  Methods   Z-D Phenomenon was employed in studying the time series of the disease, and prediction was based on the extrapolation model.

  Results   Correlation analysis, which was conducted between monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate at the best cut-off point, showed that the coefficient was negative(R < 0).The effect of prediction by Z-D Phenomenon was satisfied.

  Conclusion   Z-D Phenomenon was suitable for prediction in scarlet, which epidemic would help to establish the measure to control the prevalence of the infectious disease.