GM(1,1) Model Study on Mcrbidity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiande County

Objective:GM ( 1,1) model study on Morbidity forecasting of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome.Materials and Methods:GM (1,1) model applies to morbidity forecasting (1998-2002 year)of Hemorrhagic Fever-with Renal Syndrome with morbidity rate of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome form 1970 to 1997 year in Jiande county.Results:As forecasting of experimental results fit well with GM (1,1) model on moibidity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(1993"1997) and the morbidity forecasting Conclusion GM (1,1) model could be a rapid and practical method for forecasting of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome epidemic and help to control its epidemic.