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林少凯, 林在生, 王恺. 福州市大气臭氧暴露对人群循环系统疾病死亡风险评估[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(6): 929-932. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1126791
引用本文: 林少凯, 林在生, 王恺. 福州市大气臭氧暴露对人群循环系统疾病死亡风险评估[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(6): 929-932. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1126791
Shao-kai LIN, Zai-sheng LIN, Kai WANG. Risk assessment on ambient ozone exposure-related circulation system mortality among residents in Fuzhou city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(6): 929-932. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1126791
Citation: Shao-kai LIN, Zai-sheng LIN, Kai WANG. Risk assessment on ambient ozone exposure-related circulation system mortality among residents in Fuzhou city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(6): 929-932. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1126791

福州市大气臭氧暴露对人群循环系统疾病死亡风险评估

Risk assessment on ambient ozone exposure-related circulation system mortality among residents in Fuzhou city

  • 摘要:
      目的  探讨福州市城区大气O3对居民循环系统疾病死亡风险的影响。
      方法  收集福建省福州市2015年1月1日 — 2018年12月31日O3-8h、PM2.5、PM10、SO2和NO2的日平均浓度,以及同期的循环系统疾病日死亡人数和气象资料,采用广义相加模型分析O3-8h对循环系统疾病死亡影响,根据短期暴露的健康风险模型,评估福州市臭氧污染造成的循环系统超额死亡人数。
      结果  福州市2015 — 2018年臭氧日平均浓度为(86.77 ± 34.13)μg/m3,循环系统疾病平均死亡率为2.015‰,循环系统疾病日死亡人数为(11.30 ± 3.99)例,其中缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病死亡人数分别为(2.75 ± 1.83)和(4.87 ± 2.39)例,单污染物模型显示O3-8h浓度增加10 μg/m3,可致滞后2 d人群循环系统和脑血管疾病死亡风险分别增加0.89 %(0.33 %~1.46 %)和1.48 %(0.65 %~2.31 %)。2015 — 2018年福州市归因于O3短期暴露的循环系统和脑血管疾病超额死亡人数分别为118例(95 % CI = 44~191)和81例(95 % CI = 36~124)。
      结论  O3短期暴露可以增加循环系统疾病和脑血管疾病超额死亡风险。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To investigate the effect of ambient ozone (O3) exposure on mortality risk of circulatory diseases among residents in Fuzhou city.
      Methods  We collected three sets of daily data for Fuzhou city from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018: 1) average concentration of O3 maximum in 8 hours (O3-8h), particulate matter < 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), particulate matter < 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2); 2) average ambient temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure; and 3) the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases in Fuzhou city. The correlation between O3-8h and circulatory system mortality was analyzed using generalized additive model (GAM). Based on a health risk model for short-term O3 exposure, the excess circulatory death associated with O3-8h among the residents in Fuzhou city was evaluated.
      Results  During 2015 – 2018 for the city, the average daily concentration of O3-8h was 86.77 ± 34.13 ug/m3; the average mortality rate of circulatory disease was 2.015‰; and the daily number of circulatory disease death was 11.30 ± 3.99 and the daily number of death due to ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were 2.75 ± 1.83 and 4.87 ± 2.39, respectively. Based on the single pollutant model, a 10 μg/m3 increase in O3-8h concentration is correlated with a lag day 2 increment of 0.89% (95% confident interval 95% CI: 0.33% – 1.46%) for circulatory mortality and 1.49% (95% CI: 0.66% – 2.32%) for cerebrovascular mortality. The estimated overall excess mortality contributed to ambient O3 exposure is 118 (95% CI: 44 – 191) for circulatory diseases and 81 (95% CI: 36 – 126) for cerebrovascular diseases among the residents in Fuzhou city during the 4-year period.
      Conclusion  Short-term exposure to ambient ozone could increase mortality risk due to circulatory and cerebrovascular diseases.

     

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