湖北省2011 — 2020年新报告 ≥ 50岁HIV/AIDS患者基本特征及趋势分析

郑武; 张艺; 汤恒; 蒋洪林; 张薇

doi:10.11847/zgggws1138076

湖北省2011 — 2020年新报告 ≥ 50岁HIV/AIDS患者基本特征及趋势分析

Annual number of first registered HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥ 50 years and its changing trend in Hubei province, 2011 – 2020

摘要

摘要:
目的分析湖北省新报告 ≥ 50岁的艾滋病病毒感染者/艾滋病患者（HIV/AIDS）基本特征及趋势，为后期疫情估计及制定针对性的宣传和干预措施提供依据。
方法利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统艾滋病防治基本信息系统获取2011 — 2020年湖北省新报告的 ≥ 50岁HIV/AIDS患者信息，采用joinpoint分析对不同性别及传播途径的新报告病例进行时间趋势回归分析。
结果 2011 — 2020年湖北省新报告 ≥ 50岁病例共有9224例。趋势检验显示，各年度新报告的病例数呈逐年上升（Z = 21.01，P < 0.001）；joinpoint回归分析显示，新报告 ≥ 50岁HIV/AIDS病例数性别趋势变化折点在2017年，男性2011 — 2017年呈上升趋势（APC = 24.68），2017 — 2020年呈下降趋势（APC = – 1.93）；女性2011 — 2017年呈上升趋势（APC = 23.91），2017 — 2020年上升趋势减缓（APC = 2.25）。男性经性行为和非性行为传播途径的新报告病例数趋势变化转折点在2016年，2011 — 2016年呈上升趋势（APC = 29.31），2016 — 2020年上升趋势减缓（APC = 2.76）；男性非性行为传播途径的新报告病例数2011 — 2020年呈下降趋势（APC = – 13.76）。男性经同性性行为传播新报告病例数趋势变化的转折点在2017年，2011 — 2017年呈上升趋势（APC = 26.12），2017 — 2020年呈下降趋势（APC = – 6.34）；经异性性行为传播新报告病例数趋势变化的转折点在2016年，2011 — 2016年上升趋势明显（APC = 28.77），2016 — 2020年上升趋势减缓（APC = 3.73）。女性病例中经性行为传播新报告病例数趋势变化转折点在2017年，2011 — 2017年呈上升趋势（APC = 26.01），2017 — 2020年上升趋势减缓（APC = 1.47）；非性行为传播途径的新报告病例数2011 — 2020年呈下降趋势（APC = – 25.66）。
结论湖北省2011 — 2020年新报告 ≥ 50岁的HIV/AIDS患者增长趋势较快，主要以异性性行为传播为主，应尽快制定 ≥ 50岁老年群体的有针对性的教育和防控策略，减缓趋势进一步增长。

Abstract:
Objective To examine annual number of first registered human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) cases aged ≥ 50 years and its changing trend in Hubei province during 2011 – 2020 for providing evidence to the development of targeted strategies on HIV/AIDS epidemic prevention.
Methods The data on 9 224 HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥ 50 years first registered in Hubei province during 2011 – 2020 were extracted from the Information System for AIDS Prevention and Control of China′s Disease Prevention and Control Information System and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The changing trend of annual number of the HIV/AIDS cases was analyzed with joinpoint regression model.
Results The 9 224 cases aged ≥ 50 years accounted for 35.04% of all the HIV/AIDS cases (n = 26 324) first registered in the province during the 10-year period. The annual number of the cases ≥ 50 years showed a significant increasing trend in the period (Z = 21.01, P < 0.001). The results of joinpoint regression analysis revealed gender- and infection route-different changing trajectories for the annual number of first registered cases aged ≥ 50 years during the period: (1) increasing from 2011 to 2017 for all the male and the female cases, with the annual percentage change (APC) of 24.68 and 23.91; (2) decreasing from 2017 to 2020 for the male cases (APC = – 1.93); (3) increasing slowly from 2017 to 2022 for the female cases (APC = 2.25); (4) increasing rapidly from 2011 to 2016 (APC = 29.31) but slowly from 2016 to 2020 (APC = 2.76) for the male cases sexually infected; (5) increasing from 2011 to 2017 (APC = 26.12) but decreasing from 2017 to 2022 (APC = – 6.34) for the male cases infected homosexually; (6) increasing obviously from 2011 to 2016 (APC = 28.77) and the increase slowing down from 2016 to 2022 (APC = 3.73) for the male cases infected heterosexually; (7) increasing from 2011 to 2017 (APC = 26.01) and the increase slowing down from 2017 to 2020 (APC = 1.47) for the female cases with sexually transmitted infection; and (8) decreasing from 2011 to 2020 for the cases with non sexually transmitted infection or unknown transmission routes (APC = – 25.66).
Conclusion The annual number of first registered HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥ 50 years increased from 2011 to 2020 in Hubei province and the majority of the cases were infected due to heterosexual transmission. The results suggest that targeted interventions should be developed for the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS epidemic in the elderly population.

HTML全文

参考文献(24)

施引文献

资源附件(0)