高级检索
张炎华, 叶雯婧, 欧剑鸣, 谢剑锋, 林琦, 黄枝妙, 翁育伟, 郑奎城. 福建省2021年3月 — 2022年2月新冠病毒Delta变异株感染及复阳者流行病学分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(6): 769-776. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1140944
引用本文: 张炎华, 叶雯婧, 欧剑鸣, 谢剑锋, 林琦, 黄枝妙, 翁育伟, 郑奎城. 福建省2021年3月 — 2022年2月新冠病毒Delta变异株感染及复阳者流行病学分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(6): 769-776. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1140944
ZHANG Yanhua, YE Wenjing, OU Jianming, XIE Jianfeng, LIN Qi, HUANG Zhimiao, WENG Yuwei, ZHENG Kuicheng. Epidemiology characteristics and re-positivity of infections with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant during a COVID-19 epidemic from March 2021 to February 2022 in Fujian province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(6): 769-776. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1140944
Citation: ZHANG Yanhua, YE Wenjing, OU Jianming, XIE Jianfeng, LIN Qi, HUANG Zhimiao, WENG Yuwei, ZHENG Kuicheng. Epidemiology characteristics and re-positivity of infections with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant during a COVID-19 epidemic from March 2021 to February 2022 in Fujian province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(6): 769-776. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1140944

福建省2021年3月 — 2022年2月新冠病毒Delta变异株感染及复阳者流行病学分析

Epidemiology characteristics and re-positivity of infections with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant during a COVID-19 epidemic from March 2021 to February 2022 in Fujian province

  • 摘要:
      目的  回顾性分析福建省2021年3月 — 2022年2月新冠病毒Delta变异株感染与复阳者的流行病学特征。
      方法   通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的传染病报告卡收集福建省2020年10月1日 — 2022年9月30日的新冠病毒感染者信息,通过突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统中的流行病学调查报告获取本土暴发疫情中的个案传播关系。运用描述流行病学的方法分析Delta变异株感染者的三间分布特征和潜伏期,运用R软件的“R0”、“EpiEstim”包拟合暴发疫情中感染者的代间隔(SI)并估算实时再生数(Rt);分析复阳的发生率及其核酸检测情况,运用logistic回归分析复阳发生的影响因素。
      结果   新冠病毒Delta变异株在福建省的流行时间大致为2021年3月 — 2022年2月,呈持续散在输入和本土局部暴发态势。输入性感染者以海员及长途驾驶员(28.99%)、学生(15.94%)以及商业服务人员(14.49%)为主,由厦门入境的感染者最多,主要来自东南亚和日本、美国、英国等地;本土疫情主要发生在莆田和厦门的学校和工厂,传播速度快,实时再生数(Rt)的最大值达7.35,代间隔(SI)服从Gamma分布,均值和标准差分别为2.28和2.06,中位潜伏期为6.50 d。复阳发生率为37.98%,本土感染者发生复阳的风险是输入性感染者的2.68倍(95%CI = 1.45~4.95),病程为15~30 d的感染者发生复阳的风险是病程为45 d以上感染者的4.12倍(95%CI:1.18~14.34)。
      结论   新冠病毒Delta变异株在福建省的流行时间大致为2021年3月 — 2022年2月,呈持续散在输入和本土局部暴发态势,输入性疫情防控压力较大,但暴发疫情得到迅速而有效的控制;Delta变异株感染者复阳发生率为37.98%,病程可能是复阳的影响因素。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To explore epidemiological characteristics and re-positivity incidence of imported and local infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant during a period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Fujian province.
      Methods  From National Information System of Disease Prevention and Control and Information System of Public Health Emergency Management, we extracted the information on 69 genome sequencing-confirmed imported infections and 264/212 genome sequencing-/epidemiologically confirmed local infections with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant registered in Fujian province from March 2021 through February 2022. Descriptive statistics was used to analyze disease characteristics and incubation period of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections. The 'R0' and 'EpiEstim' packages of R software were used to estimate the serial interval (SI) and the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt). Influencing factors of the re-positivity were analyzed with logistic regression.
      Results  The period of COVID-19 epidemic induced by SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was approximately from March 2021 to February 2022 in Fujian province, with a continuous incidence of sporadic imported cases and local outbreak of the infections. The majority of the imported cases were seafarers (28.99%), students (15.94%) and commercial service personnel (14.49%) from Southeast Asia, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom and other regions and entered Fujian province via Xiamen Customs. The local epidemics due to rapid transmission of Delta variant occurred mainly in schools and factories in Putian and Xiamen city. The SI of the local infections was fitted to Gamma distribution, with the mean and standard deviation of 2.28 and 2.06, respectively. For the 149 infector-infectee pairs of local infections during the local outbreak, the maximum value of Rt was 7.35 and the median incubation period was 6.50 days. The incidence of re-positivity was 37.98% for all the Delta variant infections. The results of multivariate regression analysis revealed that the local infections with Delta variant were at a significantly higher risk of re-positivity ( odds ratio = 2.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.25 – 4.87) compared to the imported infections. No associates of gender, age, occupation and clinical type with the re-positivity were observed.
      Conclusion  The period of COVID-19 epidemic due to SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections in Fujian province was approximately from March 2021 to February 2022, with continuously sporadic imported and local infections and the local epidemic was under effective control rapidly. The incidence rate of re-positivity was 37.98% among all infections with Delta variant.

     

/

返回文章
返回