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杨艳芳, 李会庆, 周英智, 刁玉涛, 房学强, 赵得利, 纪鹏. 肥城市食管癌死亡率负二项拟合回归分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2007, 23(8): 906-908. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-05
引用本文: 杨艳芳, 李会庆, 周英智, 刁玉涛, 房学强, 赵得利, 纪鹏. 肥城市食管癌死亡率负二项拟合回归分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2007, 23(8): 906-908. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-05
YANG Yan-fang, LI Hui-qing, ZHOU Ying-zhi, . Negative binomial regression analysis on data of esophageal cancer mortality in Feicheng city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2007, 23(8): 906-908. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-05
Citation: YANG Yan-fang, LI Hui-qing, ZHOU Ying-zhi, . Negative binomial regression analysis on data of esophageal cancer mortality in Feicheng city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2007, 23(8): 906-908. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-05

肥城市食管癌死亡率负二项拟合回归分析

Negative binomial regression analysis on data of esophageal cancer mortality in Feicheng city

  • 摘要: 目的 分析山东省肥城市食管癌死亡率的变化规律,为该地开展食管癌病因学研究及制定防制策略提供依据.方法 采用负二项回归分析年龄、性别、时期、出生队列与食管癌死亡的关系.结果 食管癌死亡与年龄和性别有关,食管癌死亡率随着年龄组的增高而升高,每相邻2个年龄组的下一年龄组食管癌死亡危险是上一年龄组的1.67倍,95%CI=1.56~1.78;男性食管癌死亡危险是女性的2.38倍,95%CI=1.78~3.18;而时期和出生队列与食管癌死亡率的变化无关联.结论 肥城市食管癌死亡率资料分布符合负二项分布,回归分析显示,影响该地区食管癌发生的危险因素在近30年中基本无变化.

     

    Abstract: Objective To prove the trend of esophageal cancer mortality from 1970 to 2004 and to provide the evidence for etiology study and preventing strategy of esophageal cancer in Feicheng city.Methods The association among mortality of esophageal cancer and age,gender,periods,birth cohorts were analyzed by negative binomial regression model.Results The results showed that the risk of esophageal cancer mortality associated with age and gender.The risk of esophageal cancer mortality increased by 1167(95%CI:1156~1178)times from above 40 years old group to every other five years old groups.The risk was 2138(95%CI:1178~3118)times higher in male than that in female.There was no significant association between the risk of esophageal cancer mortality with period times or birth cohorts.Conclusion The frequency distribution of the mortality of esophageal cancer was consistent with the negative binomial distribution.The results of analysis by negative binomial regression indicated that the etiology factors for esophageal cancer maybe not change in recent thirty years in the area.

     

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