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江涛, 蔡剑, 刘魁, 孙继民, 柴程良, 李秀央, E Marian Scott. 浙江省2005-2014年肾综合征出血热时空分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(10): 1357-1360. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-10-16
引用本文: 江涛, 蔡剑, 刘魁, 孙继民, 柴程良, 李秀央, E Marian Scott. 浙江省2005-2014年肾综合征出血热时空分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(10): 1357-1360. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-10-16
JIANG Tao, CAI Jian, LIU Kui.et al, . Temporal-spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang province,2005-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(10): 1357-1360. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-10-16
Citation: JIANG Tao, CAI Jian, LIU Kui.et al, . Temporal-spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang province,2005-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(10): 1357-1360. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-10-16

浙江省2005-2014年肾综合征出血热时空分析

Temporal-spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang province,2005-2014

  • 摘要: 目的 分析浙江省肾综合征出血热疫情的流行病学时空特征,探讨其时空变化特点,识别疾病高发地区,为肾综合征出血热的防控提供参考。方法 收集2005-2014年浙江省肾综合征出血热病例,采用时间、空间和时空联合分析方法,分析浙江省肾综合征出血热分布特征。结果 2005-2014年,浙江省累计报告肾综合征出血热5 712例,年平均报告发病率为1.34/10万。发病呈明显季节性特征,每年5-7月和11月至下年1月是发病的2个高峰期。除2010年外,其余年份各县(区)年发病率均存在空间相关性,空间自相关呈逐年下降趋势。2005-2014年时空扫描共发现2个时空聚集区,聚集时间分别为2005年1月持续至2009年6月,2011年9月持续至2013年8月,聚集区均位于浙江东中部地区,2次聚集区空间分布上呈现扩大趋势。结论 浙江省肾综合征出血热发病存在时空聚集性,在高发地区应继续做好周边扩散的控制,防止出现疫情聚集。对已有聚集区应加大联防联控,采取必要的防控措施。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze temporal-spatial ditribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Zhejiang province and to identify high-risk areas for the prevention and control HFRS epidemics in Zhejiang province.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were adopted to describe the epidemic characteristics of HFRS in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2014.Results A total of 5 712 HFRS cases were reported during the period with an average annual reported incidence of 1.34/100 000.The HFRS epidemics showed an obvious seasonal variation.Two peaks of incidence rate was observed from May to July in a year and from November to January of next year.The global autocorrelation analysis demonstrated a significant spatial correlation for the county (district) -specific annual incidence except for the incidences in 2011 and the spatial autocorrelation declined over the years.Besides,two temporal-spatial clusterings,both in eastern Zhejiang during the periods from January 2005 to June 2009 and September 2011 to August 2013,were identified and the two spatial clusters showed an expansion trend.Conclusion There were temporal-spatial clusterings of hemorrhagic fever of renal syndrome epidemics in Zhejiang province from 2009 to 2014 and effective control measures should be implemented in the areas with high-risk to prevent the spread of the disease.

     

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