广州市传染性非典型肺炎应急监测与报告系统的建立与评价
Establishment and evaluation on emergency surveillance and notification system of SARS in Guangzhou
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摘要:目的 描述2003年初广州市传染性非典型肺炎疫情报告体系的运作情况, 评价报告系统的敏感性和特异性, 不断改进报告系统中不合理的环节, 为今后各类突发公共卫生事件的监测和报告打下基础.方法 描述广州市非典型肺炎疫情报告系统建立和运行, 并运用相应的统计方法对该系统进行评价.结果 在疫情发生发展的各个时期, 广州市传染性非典型肺炎病例从住院到确诊及向政府和民众报告的时间平均为3.50d.漏报病例、误诊病例、重报病例分别占所有报告病例的0.16%, 11.50%和1.32%.结论 广州市应急建立起来的传染性非典型肺炎监测和报告系统具有一定的灵敏度和特异度, 运行机制良好, 能及时根据实际工作情况调整监测和报告网络, 疫情报告数据准确可靠.Abstract:Objective To describe the operation of the sur veillance and notification system on the SARS epidemic in Guang zhou and evaluate its sensitivity and specificity so as to identify and improve the unreaso nable sectors of the system and lay a good foundation for the sur veillance and notification of sudden public health incidents in the future.Methods The establishment and operation of the surveillance and notification system on the SA RS epidemic in Guangzhou are described and relevant statistical analysis are applied to evaluate the system.Results It takes 3.5 days for a suspected case to be confirmed and repor ted to the gover nment.Only 2 cases(2/1 204)are not reported(0.16%).The percentage of erroneous diagnosis is 11.50%.A total of 16 cases(11.32%)are reported twice or more.Conclusion The sensitivity and specificity of the system is fairly good.A djustments are made in a timely manner to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the epidemic data.
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