Prediction and stage analysis on increase in total health expenditure of medical institutions in China

  Objective  To predict the increase in total health expenditure (THE) and to analyze changing stage of THE for various medical institutions in China.

  Methods  We collected national data on THE from 1990 through 2015 and analyzed the data using logistic function curve fitting with SPSS software.

  Results  The analysis results indicated that an inflection point in the curve for China′s THE increase from concave to convex increasing function would occur around 2020. China′s THE increased gradually before 2009 but has been increased rapidly since 2009 and could remain in a rapid increase till 2030. We estimated that China′s THE would increase slowly after 2030. For urban medical institutions in China, the inflection point for THE increase occurred around 2010 and there would be a 22-year period (2000 – 2021) of rapid increase in THE; for medical institutions at county level, the inflection point for THE increase would occur around 2026 and there would be a 21-year period (2016 – 2036) of rapid increase in THE; and for medical institutions at township level, the inflection point for THE increase would occur around 2019 and there would be a 27-year period (2006 – 2032) of rapid increase in THE.

  Conclusion  The increase in total health expenditure is greatly unbanlanced among medical institutions at different levels in China, with a rapid total health expenditure increase first among medical institutions at municipal level, then among those at township level, and lastly among those at county level. The study results suggest that decision makers should develop different policies based on changes and stages in the variation of total health expenditure for medical institutions at different administration level.