Assessment of 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease for adults aged 35 – 59 years in Shanghai city

  Objective  To analyze risk factors of ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) among 35 – 59 years old residents in Shanghai in 2013 and to assess the risk of ICVD during next 10 years for the residents.

  Methods  We extracted the data on 9 310 urban and rural residents aged 35 – 59 years from Surveillance on Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors in Shanghai City conducted in 2013. We adopted the method and tools for ICVD risk assessment developed by the National Collaborative Research Group for Evaluation and Intervention on Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Integrated Risk. For all the residents, the individual absolute risk of 10-year ICVD incidence was calculated based on the total score for all the risk factors of the individual and then the10-year ICVD risk of the individual was graded into high, moderate, and low category according to the calculated absolute risk (≥ 10%, ≥ 5% and < 10%, and < 5%).

  Results  The estimated absolute 10-year risk of ICVD incidence was 3.19% (95% confidence interval 95% CI: 3.11% – 3.27%) for all the participants; the risk for the male participants (4.16%, 95% CI: 4.00% – 4.32%) was higher than that for the female (2.58%, 95% CI: 2.50% – 2.67%); the risk increased with the increment of age and differed by living region (urban, rural-urban, and rural region) of the participants. The proportion of the participants with high, moderate, and low estimated 10-year risk of ICVD incidence were 5.38%, 13.35%, and 81.27%, respectively; the proportion was significantly different between the male and female participants and among the participants of various ages and living in different regions. The proportion of participants with high ICVD incidence risk increased with the increment of the participants′ age.

  Conclusion  The study estimated higher overall, sex-, and age-group specific 10-year risk of ICVD incidence among the 35 – 59 years old residents in Shanghai city than the domestic reference levels estimated by the the National Collaborative Research Group and 5.38% of the residents were assessed with a high risk of 10-year ICVD incidence, suggesting that comprehensive intervention on risk factors of ICVD should be promoted in the population.