Objective To predicate premature mortalities of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and estimate mortality reductions of the NCDs to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 among residents in Yunnan province based on mortality data of 1990 – 2015 in the same population.
Methods We collected the data on disease burden of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, and malignant tumors among residents in Yunnan province between 1990 to 2015 from the Global Disease Burden Study 2016 (GBD 2016) and calculated gender-specific premature mortalities due to the four NCDs using the method recommended by World Health Organization (WHO). Then, we estimated the premature mortalities caused by the NCDs among the population in the province by the year of 2030 using trend extrapolation method and compared the estimated premature mortalities to those of SDGs.
Results The total premature mortality of the four NCDs was 20.89% for the population in Yunnan province in 2015 and the premature mortality was 26.92% for the male and 14.48% for the female population. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases contributed the most (10.99%) to the total premature mortality, followed by malignant tumor (7.39%), chronic respiratory disease (3.48%), and diabetes (0.57%). The premature mortalities of the NCDs were all higher among the male population than among the female population, except for that of diabetes. The total premature mortality of the four NCDs showed a downward trend for the population in Yunnan during the period from 1990 to 2015, with an average annual declining rate of 1.44%. The predicted total premature mortality of the four NCDs was 16.60% for the population in Yunnan province by the year of 2030 and was higher than the target value of 13.93% according with the SDGs. Among the predicted premature mortalities for the four NCDs among the population in the province by the year of 2030, only the premature mortality of chronic respiratory diseases could meet the target value according with the SDGs and the situation is the same for both the male and the female population; the largest gap between the predicted premature mortality and the SDGs based target value is for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the smallest is for diabetes. The predicted total premature mortality of the four NCDs in the male population by the year of 2030 would not reach the target value according with the SDGs but that in the female population might reach the target value.
Conclusion Although the premature mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, and malignant tumor had been declined among residents in Yunnan province from 1990 to 2015, the predicted mortalities by the year of 2030 would be hard to reach target values according the target values of SDGs based on current declining rate for the mortalities.
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