Objective To explore spatio-temporal clustering distribution of hepatitis B (HB) incidences reported in Guizhou province during 2004 – 2016 and to provide evidences for developing and modifying HB prevention and control strategies.
Methods The data on reported HB incidences in 88 municipalities/counties/districts of Guizhou province during 2004 – 2016 were extracted from National Notifiable Disease Reporting System and the data on demographics and geography of the regions were collected simultaneously. ArcGIS 10.2 and SatScan 9.6 software were used in data analysis.
Results Spatial autocorrelation was observed in HB incidences in the province during the 13-year period, with the global Moran′s I values of 0.148 0 and 0.443 9 for the periods of 2004 – 2010 and 2011 – 2016 (P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed high-high clustering of HB incidence at 3 counties in Zunyi region during 2004 – 2010 and at 8 counties mainly located in Zunyi, southern and southeastern region of the province. Space-time scan statistics demonstrated the likely clustering of HB incidence in northern region during 2008 – 2009 and the likely clustering of HB incidence in northern, southern and southeastern region of he province in 2011.
Conclusion The reported HB cidence rate was declining generally and the rate exhibited spatio-temporal clustering, with clustering areas in northern regions expanding to southern and southeastern regions, in Guizhou province from 2004 to 2016.
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