Mortality trend and its influencing factors of cardio-cerebral vascular diseases among a new urban community population in Shanghai, 2009 – 2018: a decomposition analysis

  Objective  To explore the trend and influencing factors of cardio-cerebral vascular diseases (CCVDs) mortality among permanent residents in a rural-urban transition community from 2009 to 2018 in Shanghai city.

  Methods  The data on CCVDs mortality and its correlates for permanent residents of the community from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2018 were collected from the datasets of death registry system of Shanghai city. Crude mortality, standardized mortality rate, and annual percent change (APC) were adopted to assess the level and trend of CCVDs mortality; differential decomposition method was used to evaluate contributions of the demographic and non-demographic factors to CCVDs mortality.

  Results  During the 10-year period in the population, totally 857 CCVDs deaths were registered, accounting for 21.28% of all-cause death; the crude mortality rate of CCVDs was 245.23/100 000 and the annual rate showed a significant upward trend (APC = 3.55, Z = 2.32, P = 0.049); the Chinese population standardized mortality rate of CCVDs was 78.91/100 000 and the annual rate showed no significant variation trend (APC = 0.08, Z = 0.06, P = 0.952). As for mortality of cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic heart disease, the total number of registered death were 460 and 338; the crude mortality rate were 131.63 and 96.72 per 100 000 population; and Chinese population standardized mortality rate were 42.84 and 29.18 per 100 000 population, respectively. No significant change trends were observed in crude and standardized mortality rate of cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic heart disease (P > 0.05 for all). Using those of 2009 as baseline values, an increased crude rate of 48.66/100 000 and a contribution ratio of 63.10% for CCVDs mortality could be attributed to changes in demographic factors during the period of 2014 – 2018, both of which were higher than those (15.48/100 000, 39.08%) for the period of 2009 – 2013.

  Conclusion  The crude mortality rate of cardio-cerebral vascular diseases increased significantly among permanent residents in a rural-urban transition community from 2009 to 2018 and the increase could be attributed mainly to the ageing of the population.