Region- and risk-specific strategies for coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic control and prevention in Guangdong province: a risk assessment study

  Objective  To preliminarily develop a region- and risk-specific plan for prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic base on the risk assessment methodology.

  Methods  We collected the data on daily number of COVID-19 cases reported in every provincial-level regions across China and every prefecture level regions in Guangdong province and the size of migrant populations from regions with severe COVID-19 epidemic. A scheme for assessment of COVID-19 epidemic risk was developed with expert consultations. The risk of imported, local and combined transmission of COVID-19 were evaluated using quantitative analysis for 152 county/district level regions in Guangdong province.

  Results  The assessment results demonstrated that for all the regions, 17 (11.18%), 36 (23.68%), and 99 (65.13%) were at high, moderate, and low risk of imported transmission and 17 (11.08%), 32(21.05%), and 103 (67.76%) were at high, moderate, and low risk of local transmission of COVID-19, respectively. The regions with high combined risk distributed mainly around several municipalities, including Foshan, Huizhou, Gruangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan.

  Conclusion  The Pearl River Delta region is at a high risk of COVID-19 epidemic in relation to its high economic development and population density, as well as a large number of migrant workers. The region- and risk-specific assessment results may provide a reference for effective prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in the province.