Application of risk grading strategy for COVID-19 epidemic control in Sichuan province

  Objective  To examine risk grading-based control on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Sichuan province and to provide references for effective containment of the epidemic.

  Methods  The data on all COVID-19 cases reported in Sichuan province from January 21 through March 18, 2020 were collected from National Disease Prevention and Control Information System. SPSS22.0 software was used in data process and analysis and ArcGIS was adopted to construct graphics of special distribution of the COVID-19 cases. Regional grading on risk of COVID-19 were performed according to the Provincial Guideline on Risk Grading – Based Containment of COVID-19 issued by provincial administrations.

  Results  Among 183 administrative regions in Sichuan province, 128 and 54 were classified into regions with low and moderate risk of COVID-19 epidemic, and only one was classified as the region with high risk of the epidemic based on the assessment conducted on March 2, 2020 – the day of governmental release of the risk grading guideline. The incidents of clustered and imported COVID-19 cases differed significantly among in regions with different risk category (P = 0.001, P < 0.05). There was a correlation between the COVID-19 cases′ hospitalization duration and the risk category of the region where the cases being hospitalized (r_s = 0.088, P = 0.041).

  Conclusion  In Sichuan province, the regions at moderate risk of COVID-19 epidemic mainly distribute in Chengdu and northeastern area with high economic development and frequent population migration; the risk grading-based management plays a role in effective control on COVID-19 epidemic in the province.