Lag effect of humidex on bacillary dysentery and its regional heterogeneity in North China

WANG Shu-zi; LIU Zhi-dong; GAO Qi

doi:10.11847/zgggws1131829

Volume 38 Issue 1

Jan. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Chinese Journal of Public Health > 2022 > 38(1): 80-84

WANG Shu-zi, LIU Zhi-dong, GAO Qi, . Lag effect of humidex on bacillary dysentery and its regional heterogeneity in North China[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(1): 80-84. doi: 10.11847/zgggws1131829

Citation:

WANG Shu-zi, LIU Zhi-dong, GAO Qi, . Lag effect of humidex on bacillary dysentery and its regional heterogeneity in North China[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(1): 80-84. doi: 10.11847/zgggws1131829

Citation:

PDF( 1176 KB)

Lag effect of humidex on bacillary dysentery and its regional heterogeneity in North China

doi: 10.11847/zgggws1131829

1.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo Collage of medicine, Shandong University, Ji′nan, Shandong Province 250012, China

Received Date: 2020-07-29
Available Online: 2021-08-12
Publish Date: 2022-01-20

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To study the association of humidex with bacillary dysentery (BD) incidence and its regional heterogeneity in North China. Methods The daily BD incidence and meteorological data from January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2016 in North China were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Science Data Sharing Service Network. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess associations of average ambient temperature, relative humidity and humidex with BD incidence. Multivariate meta-analysis was employed to pool region-specific analytic estimates and then meta-regression analysis was adopted to explore modifiers of the association between humidex and BD incidence. Results Approximately J-shaped relationships were observed between pooled BD risk and average ambient temperature, relative humidity and humidex. The humidex showed a promotion effect on BD incidence of the same day; the effect was the most obvious for the lag day 3 (relative risk [RR] = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.05 – 1.09) and lasted until the lag day 7. Taking the median humidex as a reference, the humidex of 42.4 manifested a highest promotion effect on BD incidence, with the RR of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.52 – 2.53). The effect of humidex was more obvious in city-level regions at high latitude and longitude, with high natural population growth rate but low gross domestic production per capita. Conclusion The meteorological condition with high humidex may promote bacillary dysentery incidence in North China and the situation needs to be concerned in the control of the disease, especially in some vulnerable cities.
- humidex,
- bacillary dysentery,
- distributed lag non-linear model,
- meta regression

FullText(HTML)

References(29)

References

[1]	曹卉. 2005 — 2016年全国细菌性痢疾的空间分布特征及发病预测[D]. 吉林: 吉林大学, 2019.
[2]	World Health Organization. Guidelines for the control of shigellosis, including epidemics due to Shigella dysenteriae type 1[EB/OL]. (2004 – 12 – 18) [2020 – 04 – 06]. https://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/documents/9241592330/en/.
[3]	李硕, 张云辉, 王永怡, 等. 2017年全球传染病热点回顾[J]. 传染病信息, 2018, 31(1): 5 – 10. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-8134.2018.01.002
[4]	国家科技基础条件平台, 国家人口健康科学数据中心. 公共卫生科学数据中心[EB/OL]. (2004 – 01 – 01) [2020 – 04 – 06]. http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/.
[5]	Liu ZD, Tong MX, Xiang JJ, et al. Daily temperature and bacillary dysentery: estimated effects, attributable risks, and future disease burden in 316 Chinese cities[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2020, 128(5): 057008. doi: 10.1289/EHP5779
[6]	Liu ZD, Liu YY, Zhang Y, et al. Effect of ambient temperature and its effect modifiers on bacillary dysentery in Jinan, China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 650: 2980 – 2986. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.053
[7]	Li ZJ, Wang LG, Sun WG, et al. Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China[J]. Scientific Reports, 2013, 3(1): 3239. doi: 10.1038/srep03239
[8]	Li ZJ, Zhang XJ, Hou XX, et al. Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China[J]. Epidemiology and Infection, 2015, 143(16): 3510 – 3519. doi: 10.1017/S0950268815001156
[9]	张衡, 赵科伕, 何睿欣, 等. 温湿指数对合肥市细菌性痢疾影响的时间序列研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2017, 38(11): 1523 – 1527. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.11.017
[10]	中国气象局国家气象中心, 中国气象局预测减灾司. 中国气象地理区划手册[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006.
[11]	Pan RB, Gao JJ, Wang X, et al. Impacts of exposure to humidex on the risk of childhood asthma hospitalizations in Hefei, China: effect modification by gender and age[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 691: 296 – 305. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.026
[12]	Smoyer-Tomic KE, Rainham DG. Beating the heat: development and evaluation of a Canadian hot weather health-response plan[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2001, 109(12): 1241 – 1248. doi: 10.1289/ehp.011091241
[13]	Conti S, Meli P, Minelli G, et al. Epidemiologic study of mortality during the summer 2003 heat wave in Italy[J]. Environmental Research, 2005, 98(3): 390 – 399. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2004.10.009
[14]	国家统计局城市社会经济调查司. 中国城市统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2016.
[15]	王海涛, 刘志东, 劳家辉, 等. 浙江省气温对其他感染性腹泻的滞后效应及影响因素[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2019, 40(8): 960 – 964. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.08.016
[16]	Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG. Multivariate meta-analysis for non-linear and other multi-parameter associations[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 2012, 31(29): 3821 – 3839. doi: 10.1002/sim.5471
[17]	Gasparrini A, Armstrong B. Reducing and meta-analysing estimates from distributed lag non-linear models[J]. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2013, 13(1): 1. doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-13-1
[18]	Mackey BM, Kerridge AL. The effect of incubation temperature and inoculum size on growth of Salmonellae in minced beef[J]. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 1988, 6(1): 57 – 65. doi: 10.1016/0168-1605(88)90085-2
[19]	Nygren BL, Schilling KA, Blanton EM, et al. Foodborne outbreaks of shigellosis in the USA, 1998 – 2008[J]. Epidemiology and Infection, 2013, 141(2): 233 – 241. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812000222
[20]	Kovats RS, Edwards SJ, Hajat S, et al. The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries[J]. Epidemiology and Infection, 2004, 132(3): 443 – 453. doi: 10.1017/S0950268804001992
[21]	Wu XX, Liu JN, Li CL, et al. Impact of climate change on dysentery: scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 714: 136702. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136702
[22]	Igo MJ, Schaffner DW. Quantifying the influence of relative humidity, temperature, and diluent on the survival and growth of Enterobacter aerogenes[J]. Journal of Food Protection, 2019, 82(12): 2135 – 2147. doi: 10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-19-261
[23]	贾蕾, 曹卫华, 贺雄, 等. 北京市痢疾发病率影响因素分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2007, 23(8): 1004 – 1006. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-0580.2007.08.055
[24]	Uehara S. Studies on the etiology of toxic dysentery (Ekiri) with special reference to the effects of high temperature and humidity and choline deficiency on the reticuloendothelial function[J]. Pediatrics International, 1964, 6(1): 56. doi: 10.1111/j.1442-200X.1964.tb01121.x
[25]	Fan CN, Liu FF, Zhao X, et al. An alternative comprehensive index to quantify the interactive effect of temperature and relative humidity on hand, foot and mouth disease: a two-stage time series study including 143 cities in mainland China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 740: 140106. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140106
[26]	Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, et al. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2002, 155(1): 80 – 87. doi: 10.1093/aje/155.1.80
[27]	Xu ZW, Hu WB, Zhang YW, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: what is the driver behind?[J]. PLoS One, 2014, 9(8): e104329. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104329
[28]	Zhang H, Si YL, Wang XF, et al. Patterns of bacillary dysentery in China, 2005 – 2010[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016, 13(2): 164. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13020164
[29]	Bo ZY, Ma Y, Chang ZR, et al. The spatial heterogeneity of the associations between relative humidity and pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease: evidence from a nation-wide multicity study from mainland China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 707: 136103. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136103