Establishment of an evaluation framework for selecting vaccines to be included into planned immunization of Shenzhen city using Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process

  Objective  To construct an evaluation framework for prioritizing the inclusion of non-program vaccines into planned immunization of Shenzhen city.

  Methods  After developing a preliminary evaluation framework with literature studies, we conducted two rounds of Delphi consultation among 15 experts for screening relevant indicators and modifying the framework during March – July 2022. The weight of each indicator in the framework was calculated using analytic hierarchy process.

  Results  The active coefficients for the two rounds of expert consultation were 100% and 86.67% and the expert authority index was 0.84 for the two rounds of consultation. The concordance coefficients for the experts′ comprehensive evaluation scores of all indicators ranged between 0.199 – 0.465 (P < 0.05) and 0.253 – 0.442 (P < 0.05) in the first and second consultation. Totally 4 primary, 13 secondary and 34 tertiary indicators were included in the finally established evaluation framework for assessing the priority of a non-program vaccine to be included into planned immunization on 4 dimensions: disease impact (disease burden, economic burden, prevention urgency), vaccine effect (safety, efficacy, related attributes), vaccination feasibility (policy making, fund, vaccine supply, human resource, surveillance), and cost-effectiveness (economic and social benefit). The combined weights were between 0.003 and 0.279 for all the indicators.

  Conclusion  The established evaluation framework is innovative and reliable and could provide a reference tool in selecting a vaccine to be included into Shenzhen municipal immunization program.