Application of gray GM (1,1)model to predict incidence of tuberculosis in Henan province

ObjectiveTo develop a gray GM (1,1)model and to explore its potential application in prediction of tuberculosis incidence.MethodsA gray GM (1,1)model was established using the epidemic data of tuberculosis in Henan province from January 1,2004 to December 31,2011,and the predictive performance was tested and accessed.ResultsThe average relative error,posterior margin ratio,small error probability,and average level deviation were 3.71%,0.21,1.00,and 0.0269,respectively,suggesting the gray GM (1,1)model could be applied for predicting tuberculosis incidence.Based on the model,the tuberculosis incidence predicted for the province form 2012 to 2014 were 65.82/10⁵,56.42/10⁵,and 47.31/10⁵,respectively.ConclusionThe gray GM (1,1)model could be used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis for the prevention management and measurement of the disease.