Prediction for incidence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis among dust-exposed workers in a coal mine in Shanxi province

Objective To predict the incidence number of coal workers' pneumoconiosis(CWP)in a cohort of dust-exposed workers in a coal mine in Shanxi province during a period of life expectancy and to identify the population at high risk of CWP.Methods We included 4711 workers initially exposed to dust from 1970 to 2011 into the cohort.Life table method was adopted to analyze the cumulative incidence rate and the average annual incidence of CWP among the cohort members with different year of first dust exposure and types of work to predict the incidence number of CWP.Results There would be 497 CWP incidents during the period of life expectancy for the cohort members.There would be 32 and 465 CWP incidents in the workers initially exposed to dust from 1970 to 1979 and from 1980 and the workers exposed to dust from 1980 had the highest predicted CWP incidence(11.17%).The predictive CWP incidents are 245,178,64,and 10 for the cohort members engaged in tunneling,mining,mixing,and auxiliary work,respectively during the period,with the highest CWP incidence rate(75.85%)among tunneling workers.The majority of CWP incidents(324)would occur in the cohort members now aged 40-50 years and there would be 416 CWP incidents within the next 30 years,accounting for 75.85% of total CWP incidents predicted.Conclusion The workers engaged in tunneling and exposed to dust from 1980 are groups at higher risk of CWP in the coal mine.