Change trend and prediction of unintentional fall mortality in Jing'an district of Shanghai:time series analysis

Objective To analyze the trend for unintentional fall mortality in residents of Jing'an district,Shanghai,and to provide basic evidences for injury interventions.Methods Data on unintentional falls among residents of Jing'an district between 1975-2009 were collected and analyzed with time series analysis and time sequence model was adopted to predict unintentional fall mortality for the years of 2010-2014 in the district.Results During the period in the district,the total number of deaths due to unintentional fall was 2814,accounting for 41.99% of total injury deaths and being the top cause of accidental injury death.An autocorrelation model(AR1)was established for the fitting of unintentional fall mortality variation,with an Akaike's information criterion(AIC)value of 207.42 and a Schwartz Bayesian criterion(SBC)value of 210.53,and both the parameter estimation and model test of the model presented significant result.Based on the model,the predicted unintentional fall mortality in the district for the years of 2010-2014 are 17.07/100000,17.72/100000,18.07/100000,18.25/100000,and 18.35/100000,respectively;the predicted trend in the mortalities is consistent to the observed status and all the predicted mortality rates are within the range of 95% confidence interval of the actual rates.Conclusion The data on unintentional fall mortality in Jing'an district is appropriate to be fitted to AR(1)model and the established model could be used for the prediction of short-term unintentional fall mortality in the district.