Application of gray model(1,1)in prediction of perinatal mortality rate in China

Objective To establish a gray model(1,1)to forecast perinatal mortality rate in China with SAS 9.3 software and to provide references for maternal and child health care.Methods The data on perinatal mortality from 2005 to 2013 in China were collected and a gray model(1,1)for perinatal mortality prediction was established based on the data.Results The mathematic formula for the model established was ⁽¹⁾(t+1)=-124.2050e^-0.0816598t+134.4750.The predicted perinatal mortality rates in China for the years of 2014,2015,and 2016 are 5.06781‰,4.67042‰,and 4.30419‰,respectively.The results of verification with various other models showed that the predictive accuracy of the model established is at a high level and the model could be used for extrapolation.Conclusion The prediction on perinatal mortality rate in China based GM(1,1)model is valid and the prediction is valuable for maternal and child health care in China.