Temporal-spatial clustering and socio-economic influencing factors of hepatitis C in mainland China, 2008-2013

Objective To examine temporal and spatial clustering and socio-economic influencing factors of hepatitis C epidemics in mainland China from 2008 to 2013, and to provide references for early identification and control of hepatitis C epidemics.Methods Possion model of SaTScan^TM 9.1 software was used to conduct monthly temporal and municipality-based spatial scanning analyses on hepatitis C incidence surveillance data during 2008-2013 in mainland China and geographically weighted regression(GWR) was applied to examine socio-economic influencing factors related to hepatitis C incidences.Results The average annual incidence of hepatitis C was 12.834/100000 in mainland China during the 6-year period, with the yearly incidences of 8.975, 10.611, 12.256, 13.628, 15.581, and 15.723/100000 from 2008 to 2013, respectively, and no statistically significant change trend in the annual incidence was observed(X_trend²=1.672, P=0.095).Temporal and spatial scanning analyses revealed obvious temporal and spatial clustering of hepatitis C incidence in mainland China;the numbers of clustering areas were 4, 7, 4, 4, 5, and 6 for the years from 2008 to 2013 and the main clustering areas included Xinjiang Uygur, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet Autonomous Regions and Gansu, Qinghai, Shanxi, Henan, Liaoning, Hebei, and Guangdong provinces, respectively.The scopes of main clustering areas were similar from 2008 to 2009, but changed from 2010 to 2013, with the interchanging between the clustering areas of class 1 and 2, the shrinking of class 3 clustering areas, and yearly expanding of class 4 clustering areas.GWR results showed that the explanatory power of disposable income per capita in urban residents and net income per capita in rural residents on regional hepatitis C incidence differed by geographical location of the area.Conclusion Temporal and spatial clustering of hepatitis C incidence exist in mainland China from 2008 to 2013 and the effect of disposable income per capita in urban residents and net income per capita in rural residents on the incidence is different in various geographical areas.