Construction of a risk assessment index system for novel or reassortant avian influenza epidemic based on One Health concept

Objective To establish a risk assessment index system for novel or reassortant avian influenza epidemic based on One Health concept and to provide evidences for prevention and control of novel avian influenza.Methods Brain storming sessions and literature review were conducted to formulate a preliminary index system frame,Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were applied to screen the indexes and determine the weight of each index.Results The activity coefficients of both round consultations were 100%.For the first round of consultation,the means of authority coefficient of the second-class and the third-class indicators were 0.876 3±0.027 1 and 0.865 3±0.037 8,and those for the second round of consultation were 0.875 0±0.042 4 and 0.880 6±0.029 9,respectively.The comprehensive mean scores for the second and third class indexes were 4.154 0±0.227 4 and 4.019 5±0.306 4 for the first round consultation and 4.236 2±0.235 4 and 4.127 1±0.266 7 for the second round consultation.Totally 5 first-,13 second-,and 87 third-class indicators were included in the established risk assessment index system for H7N9,H5N6 and other novel or reassortant avian influenza.Conclusion The study constructed an index system for risk assessment for novel or reassortant avian influenza epidemic and the system may provide evidences for the prevention and control of the epidemic and reasonable allocation of health resources and major indexes of the system could be adopted to evaluate the risk of human infection of novel avian influenza viruses.