Assessment on potential of malaria epidemic based on weighted composite index method

Objective To assess the potential of malaria epidemic in 8 counties or districts in Hubei and Anhui province and in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China and provide strategies and suggestions for malaria risk management.Methods The 8 counties were selected with stratified random sampling and typical sampling for a survey conducted between July 2015 and February 2016.Literature research,brain-storming,and expert consultation were adopted and 7 representative indicators associated with malaria epidemic were selected in the study.The potential of malaria epidemic in the 8 regions was evaluated using weighted composite index method.Results The composite indexes for malaria epidemic in the 8 regions were 0.00130,0.00072,0.00039,0.00036,0.00178,0.00104,0.00040,and 0.00185,with the highest value of 0.00185 for a high risk region and the lowest of 0.00036 for a low risk region,respectively.Although the indexes suggested a low overall risk of malaria epidemic,but there were infection source,vector transmission,and population exposure related malaria epidemic risks in the 8 regions.Conclusion The study results suggest that to reduce the risk of malaria epidemic in China,disease prevention and control institutions of various administrative regions should make efforts in controling infectious source,interrupting the pathway of transmission,and preventing people from exposure.