Establishment of an index system for malaria risk assessment in China

Objective To establish an index system for effective assessment of malaria risk in China and to provide references for early warning of malaria risk in China.Methods The index system of malaria risk assessment was established primarily based on literature research; then an initial screening on indicators of the system was conducted by 24 experts and the expert consultation results were optimized with entropy method.Results The scores of familiarity with all the indexes for the experts were greater than 7; the authority coefficients were greater than 8; and the coordination coefficient for the expert consultation was 0.212 (χ²=121.876,P<0.01).After adjustment with entropy optimization,the weight of number of malaria incidents,exposure time of the residents in summer season,number of persons entering an endemic region,and governmental attention for malaria risk were markedly upregulated,with the values of 0.175 1,0.141 0,0.100 6,and 0.103 7,respectively.The index system established finally includes 2 first-tier indicators,8 second-tier indicators,and 26 third-tier indicators.Conclusion Delphi method combined with entropy method is of advantages when used in malaria risk assessment.The established index system is comprehensive,systematic,and more closely related to the occurrence of malaria risk in real situation and could be used for effective assessment of malaria risk.