Researches on theoretical model for malaria risk assessment in China

Malaria risk assessment is an important part of malaria management.Based on uncertainty and vulnerability theory,this study aims to define the concept of malaria risk and to establish conceptual model for risk assessment in late malaria elimination from possibility and vulnerability of malaria.A region does not have the possibility of malaria and a malaria prevention system does not have the vulnerability of malaria epidemic,which can be seen as a permanent state of no malaria risk.Only when the both sides are more likely to occur can malaria risk exist.If the value of any one party is low,malaria risk is also low but the risk will increase as the relatively low value increases.So we should rely on the conceptual framework of malaria risk assessment,and then build a malaria risk assessment indicator framework,which includes probability index framework and vulnerability index framework.The former contains source of infection,vector risk,and population exposure risk,and the latter contains sensitivity and vulnerability of economics,society,politics and health system.Finally,we establish relevant indicators of malaria risk assessment.